Monday, July 16, 2007

What I don't know...

Bart: Actually, numbers don't have much use in my future career: Olympic gold medal rocket sled champion!
Mrs. Lovejoy: Hmm. I didn't know the rocket sled was an Olympic event.
Bart: Well, no offense, lady, but what you don't know could fill a warehouse.

That's from The Simpsons, where all of life's wisdom eventually resides.

I'm going to make some predictions in tomorrow's Macon city elections, with a few caveats:
- These are not endorsements.
- I talk to a lot of people, but not a lot of "real people." That means I spend my days talking to politicians, public officials, press officers, pundits, etc. So I really don't have the contact with Sally on 6th St. that you need to predict the will of 40,000 voters.
- What I don't know could fill a warehouse.
- You can never really tell what the voters are going to do.

So, my predictions, followed by a name picked out of a hat. We'll see who's better at this.

The Macon mayor's race (D): There's basically three scenarios - Robert Reichert-Lance Randall in a runoff, Reichert-Anita Ponder in a runoff and Reichert without a runoff. That's based on a lot of conversations and some voter surveying we've done. I don't think Henry Ficklin has had time to get his message to enough folks, and Thelma Dillard hasn't hit the issues as hard as the other candidates.
I was initially going to go with Reichert-Randall, but based on the advice of a former city councilman whose opinion I really respect, I'm going to say Reichert-Ponder in a runoff.
The hat says: Reichert-Randall (son of a...)

The mayor's race (R): Gibson on wicked low turnout.
The hat says: Gibson

Ward I Post 1: A tough one to call. You've got council members Rick Hutto and Brenda Youmas, and newcomer Keith Moffett, whose still got some name recognition from a school board run. Hutto and Moffett have the best chance, I think, but then I've never quite understood Youmas' power base, so she could make a fool of me. But I'm going to say Hutto and Moffett make the runoff.
The hat says: Hutto came out first, followed by Moffett.

Ward I Post 3: Elaine Lucas in a romp.
The hat says: Lucas

Ward II Post 2: Mike Cranford bests Al Tillman.
The hat says: Al Tillman.

Ward II Post 3: Ed DeFore over David Booker.
The hat says: DeFore.

Ward III Post 1: Rabbi Larry Schlesinger takes down Cartese Dillard. I knew I'd been covering this election too long when I no longer had to look up the spelling for Schlesinger. It was weeks ago.
The hat says: Schlesinger. The hat is going to beat me.

Ward III Post 3: Man, there ain't no telling. All newcomers, none of them well known. It's the firebrand Marshall Burkett versus the professor Tom Ellington versus "the kid" DeArious Rhodes. I'll say Rhodes and Ellington go to a runoff, barely, with Rhodes getting the most votes. He's a Ficklin protege and that will be enough to push him to the top.
The hat says: Burkett came out first, followed by Rhodes.

Ward IV Post 1: One of the big ones. Councilmembers Willette Hill-Chambliss and Miriam Paris go toe-to-toe in a citywide race. We'll see how the hotel issue affects this thing, and who knows more people. Paris has had to run her campaign with one hand tied behind her back (a family illness and she lost her campaign manager from last year, because she moved). Regina Davis is also in this thing, but the other two names are too much for her to overcome. I'll go out on a limb and say Hill-Chambliss without a runoff.
The hat says: Regina Davis.

Ward IV Post 3: Harold Franklin, an amiable truck driver, v. Virgil Watkins Jr. (the Ellis protege and son of a pretty well-known real estate broker) v. Gerald Harvey, who is a former councilman. I'll say Harvey and Watkins head to a runoff.
The hat says: Watkins-Harvey in a runoff.

So there you go. Predictions in all the contested races. Feel free to post your own in the comments section, and to come back Wednesday to say how stupid I am.


Andrew said...

Democratic: Reichert wins with 55%
Republican: Cousino in true darkhorse fashion

City Council
Ward 1 Post 1
Keith Moffett

Ward 1 Post3
Elaine Lucas

Ward 2 Post 2
Mike Cranford

Ward 2 Post 3
Ed Defore

Ward 3 Post 1
Larry Schlesinger

Ward 3 Post 3
DeArious Rhodes

Ward 4 Post 3
Gerald Harvey

VictoratGaImproper said...
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