Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Exit polling action

UPDATE: I'm just going through the financial disclosures... Robert Reichert has raised nearly $160,000 to run for mayor. Nearest comptetitor? Looks like Anita Ponder, with $25,000.

I had to go to the Board of Elections today to meet Veronica Brinson, who turned in her petition today to get into the mayor's race as an indepedent.

While I was waiting I did a little exit polling in the mayor's race (advance voting is this week), thinking it wouldn't show much. But the results surprised me.

I talked to 39 people in about a half hour (from 11:30 a.m. until about 12:10 p.m., with a 10 minute break at about 11:50 a.m. to watch Brinson turn in her petition, etc.).

Nine people wouldn't tell me who they voted for. Here's how the other 30 broke down:

Robert Reichert: 22 (18 white, 4 black)
Lance Randall: 6 (all black)
Anita Ponder: 2 (1 white, 1 black)

None of the other four candidates tallied a vote in my poll. And I noted the race of each voter because it seems to play so heavily into local elections.

Now this is just a small sample. There's been a pretty steady stream of folks advance voting this year (250 on Monday), but the bulk of voters will come out next Tuesday, on election day. I'm sure many candidates, if not all, would say they expect their support to wait until then. And, supposedly, conservatives are more likely to advance vote.

UPDATE: Amy makes a good point in the comments section - namely that Macon's registered voting population is about 60 percent black, so the heavy slant toward white voters in this sample won't hold true come election day.

Still, the overwhelming margin for Reichert is interesting. Hopefully we can do some more polling (for a much longer period) later this week.

By the way, Erick Erickson (blogger, soon-to-be city councilman, Republican, etc.) has a post up on Peach Pundit about Republicans in Macon voting Democratic this year. It's got some good numbers for anyone trying to decide which way to go on that decision.


Amy Morton said...

Interesting. In the past, more Republicans than Democrats vote during early voting. Also, while I know you know this, it's worth noting that the racial breadkdown (19 white, 11 black) will not come close to the demographics of the voters in the primary. Regardless of Republican crossover, I think Reichert is looking at a runoff. We'll see.

Nick said...

Your exit poll is about as accurate as the one that had John Kerry winning Ohio on 04.